New truce possibilities in Gaza: a step to peace? Or a sidestep to war in Lebanon?
I am appreciative of the opportunity I was given by WION, India’s premier English-language global broadcaster, to speak briefly about the current state of affairs in the Gaza war, from where there are reports that a cease fire agreement between Israel and Hamas may be imminent.
I freely acknowledge that the Middle East per se is outside my core competence, however, these days, as the BBC likes to explain in its self-promoting adverts for its business coverage: everything is connected. It is not possible to speak about the forces influencing the direction of the Israel’s confrontation with its neighbors without discussing the Russian factor, which is my core competence.
To be sure, Russia’s influence has till now been to calm things down, not to become a party to the conflict, since Moscow has its hands full with the war in Ukraine. We are told, in particular, that Russia has applied pressure to its friend Bashar Assad in Syria, to keep Damascus on the sidelines, out of harm’s way. However, an all-out Israeli attack on Lebanon, which may be Mr. Netanyahu’s next move if there is a lull in the Gaza, would likely raise the Russian profile in this conflict sharply: at a minimum as supplier of missiles to the Houthis that can prevent an active and much needed U.S. intervention on Israeli’s behalf if the country goes to war with Hezbollah, and at a maximum by lending support to the militias in Syria and Iraq which participate in the Axis of Resistance under the aegis of Iran.
Israel-Hamas war: Renewed hope for a ceasefire in Gaza | Live Discussion | WION